Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 134,654
2 South Dakota 132,530
3 Rhode Island 128,166
4 Utah 119,970
5 Tennessee 116,091
6 Arizona 115,389
7 Iowa 110,841
8 Oklahoma 110,430
9 Arkansas 109,327
10 Wisconsin 108,943
11 Nebraska 107,974
12 South Carolina 106,667
13 Alabama 104,909
14 Kansas 104,248
15 Mississippi 102,352
16 Indiana 102,091
17 New Jersey 100,949
18 Idaho 100,450
19 Nevada 98,401
20 Illinois 97,948
21 Montana 97,479
22 Georgia 97,095
23 Wyoming 96,838
24 Delaware 96,596
25 Texas 95,977
26 Kentucky 95,893
27 Louisiana 95,308
28 Florida 95,168
29 Missouri 95,077
30 New York 95,056
31 California 92,662
32 Minnesota 91,342
33 Massachusetts 91,335
34 New Mexico 91,112
35 North Carolina 86,866
36 Ohio 86,544
37 Connecticut 85,606
38 Alaska 84,402
39 Colorado 80,022
40 Pennsylvania 79,418
41 West Virginia 78,460
42 Michigan 72,427
43 Virginia 72,094
44 Maryland 67,524
45 District of Columbia 62,593
46 New Hampshire 61,062
47 Washington 47,756
48 Puerto Rico 43,868
49 Oregon 38,872
50 Maine 37,084
51 Vermont 30,160
52 Hawaii 20,854

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 New Jersey 554
2 New York 438
3 Michigan 371
4 Massachusetts 353
5 Delaware 350
6 Vermont 323
7 Pennsylvania 291
8 Minnesota 275
9 Florida 257
10 South Carolina 255
11 West Virginia 253
12 New Hampshire 242
13 District of Columbia 238
14 South Dakota 233
15 Maryland 223
16 Colorado 220
17 Illinois 204
18 Virginia 199
19 North Dakota 168
20 Maine 163
21 Nebraska 160
22 Connecticut 158
23 Ohio 155
24 Rhode Island 152
25 Indiana 149
26 Utah 141
27 Georgia 133
28 Puerto Rico 131
29 Iowa 129
30 Texas 126
31 Wisconsin 113
32 Kentucky 105
33 Missouri 104
34 Washington 103
35 Hawaii 96
36 Nevada 95
37 Idaho 93
38 New Mexico 88
39 Arizona 87
40 Alabama 85
41 Alaska 84
42 Oregon 84
43 Mississippi 75
44 Wyoming 72
45 Montana 69
46 North Carolina 69
47 California 67
48 Tennessee 67
49 Kansas 50
50 Arkansas 46
51 Oklahoma 39
52 Louisiana 32

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,745
2 New York 2,546
3 Massachusetts 2,483
4 Rhode Island 2,461
5 Mississippi 2,352
6 Arizona 2,324
7 Connecticut 2,205
8 South Dakota 2,185
9 Louisiana 2,169
10 Alabama 2,146
11 North Dakota 1,965
12 Pennsylvania 1,957
13 Indiana 1,934
14 New Mexico 1,872
15 Illinois 1,856
16 Arkansas 1,853
17 Iowa 1,814
18 South Carolina 1,771
19 Georgia 1,728
20 Tennessee 1,715
21 Michigan 1,706
22 Nevada 1,699
23 Kansas 1,678
24 Texas 1,664
25 Delaware 1,585
26 Ohio 1,584
27 Florida 1,544
28 District of Columbia 1,496
29 California 1,490
30 West Virginia 1,469
31 Missouri 1,457
32 Maryland 1,364
33 Kentucky 1,356
34 Montana 1,343
35 Wisconsin 1,249
36 Oklahoma 1,225
37 Minnesota 1,224
38 Wyoming 1,200
39 Virginia 1,194
40 Nebraska 1,179
41 North Carolina 1,149
42 Idaho 1,095
43 Colorado 1,070
44 New Hampshire 909
45 Washington 694
46 Puerto Rico 661
47 Utah 659
48 Oregon 565
49 Maine 547
50 Alaska 408
51 Vermont 360
52 Hawaii 324

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Georgia 5
2 Massachusetts 5
3 California 4
4 Kentucky 4
5 Ohio 4
6 Florida 3
7 New York 3
8 Texas 3
9 Arizona 2
10 Arkansas 2
11 Delaware 2
12 Illinois 2
13 Indiana 2
14 Missouri 2
15 Nevada 2
16 New Jersey 2
17 Pennsylvania 2
18 South Carolina 2
19 South Dakota 2
20 Utah 2
21 Alabama 1
22 District of Columbia 1
23 Iowa 1
24 Kansas 1
25 Louisiana 1
26 Maine 1
27 Maryland 1
28 Michigan 1
29 Mississippi 1
30 New Hampshire 1
31 New Mexico 1
32 Tennessee 1
33 Vermont 1
34 Virginia 1
35 West Virginia 1
36 Alaska 0
37 Colorado 0
38 Connecticut 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Idaho 0
41 Minnesota 0
42 Montana 0
43 Nebraska 0
44 North Carolina 0
45 North Dakota 0
46 Oklahoma 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Rhode Island 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 353,077 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 314,935 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,914 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 243,890 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 243,857 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 135,105 208 93
Richland South Carolina 105,078 1030 67
York South Carolina 101,253 1208 61
Orange California 83,694 2022 35
Pierce Washington 46,344 2906 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Gove Kansas 8,346 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,488 1765 43
Davidson Tennessee 1,282 2015 35
York South Carolina 1,274 2026 35
Richland South Carolina 1,268 2035 35
Pierce Washington 666 2729 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons